運用情境分析法探討特斯拉中國發展策略

Abstract

全球暖化、人民環保意識逐漸提高等因素,促使人們重新思考如何減少對石 化燃料的依賴以維護生活環境,進而推動俱有環保概念的電動車成為替代燃油車 之首要改善目標。近年來,電動車快速發展,因節能趨勢而發展的「節能與新能 源汽車領域」將成為市場新焦點,中國大陸十二五規劃中以七大戰略新興產業作 為中國下一步經濟成長動力,其中的節能環保、新能源汽車就佔了其中兩項,其 重要性可見一斑。 而在這股電動車趨勢中,僅僅成立十二年的新興電動車場特斯拉推出價格與 性能媲美燃油車的歷史性車款,並被 Advertising Age(2009)譽為美國最赤手可熱 的品牌,如今在美國、歐洲展露頭角後,也欲前往全球最大汽車市場—中國邁進, 特斯拉在中國將會直接面臨到中國本土車廠的競爭與中國政府政策、法律等因素 的影響,並在電動車相關基礎設施、規格上與西方截然不同。 因此,本研究目的為了描繪特斯拉再 2020 年中國的發展樣貌,以情境分析 法為基礎架構,透過相關文獻及次級資料的分析,瞭解特斯拉于中國發展過程中 會受到哪些因素影響,並評估其驅動力衝擊程度與不確定程度,建構出不確定軸 面,經過適當的增修與選擇,最後建立出三種可能情境,描繪出特斯拉于中國可 能發展路徑及可能因應策略。

Due to global warming, people have been more concerned with environment preservation issue and how to be less dependent on petroleum. Therefore, gasoline vehicle has become the prime target for improvement, and thus encourages the development of electric car. The idea of electric car has been evolving for over a hundred years, nevertheless, Tesla, a young company with merely a twelve-year history, launch the most overwhelming model. Tesla has been occupying great market share in both America and Europe, and now targets China, the biggest market around the globe, as its next step. However, China is quite different from Western countries either in governmental policy or culture, which causes a great uncertainty to Tesla’s future in China. To see the factors affecting how Tesla will develop and picture its future in China, this research, basing on Scenario Analysis and Secondary Analysis, focuses on figuring out the obstacles Tesla may encounter, the driving force to develop and the level of uncertainty in China. After constructing the Uncertainty Axes and proper accommodation, this research concludes three possible scenarios, which describe the path of Tesla may develop in China and the corresponding strategies in the future.