駕駛違規與交通事故之關聯分析

Abstract

根據政府主管機關的統計資料顯示，多數的交通事故其肇事原因都是駕駛人之人為因素所致，但對於駕駛人違規與肇事因素的關聯分析研究並不多，如能對此作進一步分析研究，將有助於提出更有助益的改善策略與措施，以增進道路交通安全。 本研究利用警政單位的道路交通事故資料與監理單位的交通違規資料進行交叉探討與分析，對事故當事人的主要肇事因素與最近5年違規紀錄中的主要違規項目，透過統計檢定與羅吉斯迴歸分析探討違規對肇事的關聯性。並針對分析結果得到高肇事風險的違規項目，提出事故與違規防治策略及可行作法與政策，以期降低事故發生率。 由分析結果可知，年輕族群及男性的肇事比率偏高，違規因素則以超速、闖紅燈、未遵守標線標誌等最具正相關，建議教育執法策略宜作相對應之調整。此外，事故肇因為酒駕者，通常有酒駕違規紀錄，故應學習其他先進國家之經驗，提高對酒駕之行政與刑事處罰以有效嚇阻。

According to the government authority’s statistics, most of traffic accidents were caused by driver’s human factors. However, few studies on the correlation analysis between driving violations and accident factors have been done. Further analysis on this subject will help to derive strategies and measures for road traffic safety improvement. This study use road traffic accident data collected from the National Police Agency and traffic violation data collected from the motor vehicle office for cross-discussion and analyses. Accident factors and the last five years violations of the parties involved in the accidents were explored through statistics and logistic regression analysis to illustrate the relevance of the violations of the accidents. Violations associated with high accident risk derived from the analysis could provide control strategies and feasible practices and policies to reduce road accident rates. The results of the analyses show that young and male drivers have high offending rates. The offending factors are mostly positively related to speeding, running a red light, failure to comply with the sign and marking. It is recommended that the education and law enforcement policy should make a corresponding adjustment. In addition, the driver involved in an accident caused by drunk driving, usually had drunk driving violation records. It suggests that effective deterrent measures to improve the administrative and criminal penalties of drunk driving should learn from the experience of other developed countries.