兩岸汽車產業整合之實證研究---資料包絡分析法之應用

Abstract

台灣汽車市場已進入飽和階段，現存車廠具有良好之經營績效，然市場需求無法擴大，致台灣車廠無法取得更大之競爭優勢，反觀大陸汽車市場正處於成長階段，市場需求不斷成長，然管理不佳之車廠眾多，造成產業資源的浪費，而面對全球車廠之購併潮流，兩岸汽車廠應採取何種競爭策略以提升兩岸整體汽車產業績效，值得探討。本研究嘗試了解受評汽車廠之績效狀況，並指出未來兩岸車廠企業整合方向以及匯率波動對兩岸車廠整合之影響。 本研究蒐集兩岸已上市上櫃汽車廠基本財報資料，輔以資料包絡分析法進行效率分析，先將受評車廠分等，並以產業效率提昇最大幅度為原則來完成第一階段整合。再觀察第一階段整合受匯率之影響趨勢，最後將受匯率影響成為無效率之車廠再進行第二階段之整合，以達成兩岸汽車產業整合之效率最高為最終目標。本研究發現： 1.兩岸汽車產業受評汽車廠之績效不佳，有整合空間。 台灣汽車廠產業績效表現較佳，5家受評汽車廠中有4家高效，台灣汽車產業效率值為0.997，而大陸車廠產業績效表現較差，21家受評汽車廠中有6家高效，大陸汽車產業效率值為0.921。 兩岸汽車產業的產業效率值為0.936，26家受評汽車廠中10家高效16家是非效率，顯示了兩岸汽車產業尚具有整併的空間。 2.未來兩岸汽車廠會逐漸集團化。 受評車廠進行第一次整合模擬後，兩岸汽車產業只留下10家第一級車廠，依合併車廠家數，分類為集團車廠(併購3家以上，共有3集團)、中型車廠(只併購1家，共有4家)及小型車廠(無合併，共有3家)。 兩岸汽車產業之資源集中程度非常高，未來兩岸汽車產業內資源將會更集中促使汽車廠逐漸集團化。 3.兩岸匯率波動會影響整合結果。 在經過匯率波動調整後，於人民幣貶值達0.5%時，第一階段整合結果會改變。人民幣貶值20%，所有中型車廠無法達到高效，必需與3家小型車廠及其他中型車廠進行二次整合，才能使整體產業效率達到高效。

Taiwan automobile market has reached the saturation stage. Although the present automobile companies have good operating performance, the market demand is hard to be expanded so that the Taiwan automobile companies can not get the greater competitive advantage. Oppositely, the automobile market in Mainland China is just on the growing stage. Their demand continuously grow, however, many companies with ineffective management cause the waste of industry resources. Moreover, facing the trend of global automobile business integration, it is necessary to study what kind of competitive strategy the cross-strait automobile companies should adopt to raise the performance of the overall cross-strait automobile industry.

This research is based on the financial data of the cross-strait automobile companies and the methodology of Data Envelopment Analysis to analyze their efficiency. By the principle of maximization of industry efficiency, inefficiency companies will be merged by the first class company in the first-stage business integration. Afterward, we observe the trend how the integration will be influenced by the exchange rate. Therefore, We find some conclusions as follow:

1.There are some opportunities of business integration in the cross-strait automobile industry. The automobile industry in Taiwan has the better performance. Four of five evaluated automobile companies belong to high efficiency and the industry efficiency rate in Taiwan is 0.997. However, in the Mainland China, its automobile industry performance is not as good as Taiwan’s. Six of twenty-one evaluated automobile companies are high efficiency and the industry efficiency rate is 0.921. To combine both of cross-strait automobile industries, the industry efficiency rate is 0.936. That only 10 with high efficiency and 16 with inefficiency among 26 evaluated companies shows that integration space exists among both of cross-strait automobile industries.

2.Cross-strait automobile companies will gradually become conglomerate in the future. After the simulation of the first-stage integration for the evaluated automobile companies, the cross-strait automobile industry left only 10 first-class automobile companies. By the numbers of their merging companies, classify them into Conglomerate group (merge above 3 companies and amount to 3 companies), Medium group (only merge one company and amount to 4 companies), and Small group (be without merger and amount to 3 companies). Those data reveal that the centralization level of the cross-strait automobile industry resource is very high so that the more centralized resource in the future will make the cross-strait automobile companies gradually become conglomerate-oriented.

3.The currency exchange rate will affect the outcome of business integration. After the adjustment of the exchange rate fluctuation, when Renminbi depreciates 0.5 %, the outcome of the first-stage integration will change; when Renminbi depreciates 20%, all Medium group can not be the high efficiency and have to proceed to the second integration with the three companies in the Small group or other companies in the Medium groups so that they can make overall industry efficiency reach the high efficiency. It reveals that the fluctuation of the exchange rate will affect the outcome of the integration among the cross-strait automobile industry.