應用Bass模型探討半導體製程技術進展與採用之落差

Abstract

半導體產業已經是全球重要的產業之一，製程技術在不斷的微縮情況下，積體電路(integrated circuit, IC)的電氣訊號處理能操作在更快的速度使得產品擁有更好的表現；且微縮後能製造出單位面積更多的電晶體數目使得晶片有著更低的製造成本。 Intel創辦人Gordon Moore於1965年發表的摩爾定律(Moore’s Law)讓半導體製造業奉為圭臬，然而製程微縮技術的開發在進入奈米世代後所面對元件自身的物理極限後，摩爾定律似乎看到了瓶頸；另一方面，台積電創辦人張忠謀先生曾於2004年表示：“ If Moore’s law has not slowed down in the lab, it will surely slow down in the marketplace ”，市場的經濟效益也從另一層面影響著摩爾定律。 本研究中，我們從技術的角度探討半導體製程微縮發展的趨勢，並觀察發現半導體製程技術發展至奈米階段將面臨以下挑戰：晶圓材料、元件技術、微影技術、連線技術與研發成本。再者，我們利用Bass模型從經濟效益的角度觀察晶片業者在製程技術升級的情形，分析得到晶片設計業者對製程的需求行為：第一期階段的採用族群為需要使用先進製程的晶片設計者；第二期階段的採用族群對製程微縮所帶來高速效能優勢之需求低於對製造良率的要求，其所製造的晶片多是屬於成熟類型之產品。

In nowadays, semiconductor has become one of important industries in the whole world. As process technology shrinking, IC (integrated circuit) products get better performance due to faster electric signal operation; moreover, manufacture cost is lower by increasing more chips in the same area after process shrinking. Moore’s Law which be published by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 once plays a leading role in semiconductor industry. But as the coming of nanometer generation, Moore’s Law seems to meet bottleneck for its physical limitation. On the other hand, in 2004 TSMC founder Morris Chang has said that: “If Moore’s law has not slowed down in the lab, it will surely slow down in the marketplace”, it shows that the economy benefit of market can also make a great influence to the Moore’s Law. In this research, from the perspective of technology, we explored the trend of semiconductor advancement and observed the following challenges as nanometer generation comes: wafer material, component technology, lithography technology, interconnect technology and research cost. Additionally, from the perspective of economy, we used Bass model to analyze the upgrading of process adapting and discovered the behavior of market demand: For the first phase, adapters are chip designers who need to utilize advanced process; For the second phase, the demand of adapters in superiority of high speed by process shrinking is less than in high year rate of fabrication, most of these chips fabricated belong to mature products.