2030年數位生活情境分析– 復健與健身活動發展之研究 -

Abstract

全球各區域及國家皆已逐漸進入老年化社會的今日，以健康為概念的生活型態已逐漸成為趨勢主流。為了避免身體各方面機能皆已進入退化階段的老年期，能夠維持正常運作或恢復青壯年時的健康強壯體魄，除了期望未來醫療技術能夠突飛猛進，讓人得身體機能可以延長運作年齡，也期望藉由必要的身體復健相關活動，達到相同之目的；更期望能在青壯年期，就能藉由科技之幫助，從事健身等相關能延長身體健康之活動，以減緩老年時退化之速度。本研究嘗試由推測未來的技術預測方式之一–情境分析法，由人們對生活內涵的需求與渴望為出發點，針對數位科技進入生活活動各場景，可能滿足人們對生活內涵需求渴望之模式，由虛擬實境、輔助機器人、中醫穴道（按摩/針灸）、電療、運動療法/健身器材等五大生活場景的探討，聚焦在相關的復健與健身活動，描繪在2030年時，可能出現之情景與未來生活中可能的應用模式，以釐清復健與健身活動未來可能的發展方向、產業與產品機會、以及邁向未來搶得先機所應考量的競爭優勢條件與相對策略。本研究以情境分析法的系統化分析演繹流程，對2030年復健與健身活動生活情境發展，最後歸納出影響未來數位生活發展狀態的三個不確定主軸，在此三大不確定主軸的蓬勃樂觀發展狀態與保守發展狀態的配合之下，探討三種不同可能的復健與健身活動生活情境內容，將此情境內容對應到復健與健身活動的應用模式，歸納出未來復健與健身活動的多種應用趨勢，並歸納掌握未來復健與健身活動產品市場先機與優勢之關鍵技術方向。

These years almost every areas and countries get into the stage of aged society in worldwide. There is a major stream of life-style with healthy concept. To keep the body healthy and stronger, or avoid the body come into the transforming stage, we must expect that the capability of medical care should make great strides in the future. Another way, we should keep the habit of excise when we are young. Several possible novel applications of rehabilitation and exercise activities are forecasted based on the predicted digital life in the year 2030 in this thesis. The rehabilitation and exercise activities discussed here is concentrated in five scenes, including virtual reality, supporting robotics, Chinese medicine, electrotherapy , exercise therapy activities. In order to construct the possible rehabilitation and exercise activities in future digital life, the scenario analysis method proposed by the Stanford Research Institute (SRI) is performed. In this systematic process, three axes of uncertainty are identified. According to these results, several possible novel applications of rehabilitation and exercise activities are forecasted. The key technology trends to capitalize these opportunities are also identified. Finally some strategic suggestions for players in the digital camera industry are proposed in this thesis.