影響都市公車可靠度之因素分析

Abstract

都市地區由於高都市化及人口密度高，交通擁擠情況日益嚴重。一個功能健全之大眾運輸網路，可以促使各種經濟產業活動迅速發展，故我們須建立一個可靠的都市大眾運輸系統，特別是公車系統。 首先，我們需建立都市公車可靠度指標，作為檢視都市公車運輸健全與否之指標。其次，我們選取了影響公車可靠度指標的因素。接著，我們建立一個都市公車可靠度的模式。最後，我們使用迴歸分析方法來驗證所建構的都市公車可靠度模式。 本論文最後所獲致重要結論如下： 1.公司規模及路線配車數對公車可靠度有正向影響關係，且尖峰時的公車可靠度高於離峰之公車可靠度。 2.尖峰時，公車專用道及路線等級對於公車可靠度具有負向影響關係。 3.離峰時，捷運接駁公車對於公車可靠度具負向影響關係。 4.政府相關部門之改善策略應著重於公車專用道之號誌優先，並增加公車專用道候車站台長度，以及減少乘客上下車時間。 5.公車公司急需延攬更多的交通管理專業人才，嚴格控管司機員遵守發車時刻，並調整適宜之配車數，以及配合捷運班次調整公車班距，並且使公車路線直截化。

Traffic congestion is more serious in urban area due to the rapidurbanization. Since a healthy transit network can enrich economic activities,we thus develop a reliable urban mass transit systems, such as city bus. Firstly, we build a reliability index for urban bus transportation. Second,we choose some factors which could influence the reliability index. Third,we develop a reliability model for city bus. Then, we use the regression toverify the factors affecting the reliability. Our main results can be summarized as follows: 1. Company size and number of buses have positive effect on urban bus reliability. The bus reliability in peak hours is higher than that in off-peak hours. 2. Exclusive bus lane and bus route rank have negative effect on urbanbus reliability in peak hours. 3. Mass rapid transit feeder bus have negative effect on urban bus reliability in off-peak hours. 4. The government should focus on signal preemption, increase the station platform length and reduce the boarding time of the exclusive bus lane. 5. The bus companies should recruit more management staff, supervise bus drivers to follow the schedule, adjust the number of buses, operate bus in coordination with MRT and make the bus route straight.

Keywords：Urban Bus, Reliability, Affecting Factors, Regression Model