以 GDP 成長率與摩爾定律為基礎探討 IC 代工之成長軌跡

Abstract

經濟學中 Demand & Supply 是主宰市場價值存在的兩大因子。本研究探討半導體成長與全球性國民生產總值(global Gross Domestic Product)之相對關係，此外在 Moole’s Law 與 MTM (More than Moole’s Law)下半導體的成長曲線有何消長。在總經以外，全球性的單一事件如 1990年 波斯灣戰爭，1997~1998年亞洲金融風暴，2001年網路泡沫化，2007~2008年第 二次能源危機，及 2008年美國次級房貸等事件對於半導體產業之影響。最後利用全球晶圓代工雙雄最近十年的產能擴充與使用率之實績比較，找尋未來最佳之產能擴充之足跡。

It costs a huge capital expenditure on the capacity expansion and the technology development in the semiconductor industry. If the future economic recovery does not appear as expected, the surplus equipment will cause a waste of the company’s investment and make a decline on the ROE or even terminate the company. On the contrary if the capacity expansion does not match the economic recovery the company would loose its opportunity to earn the early money and market share. The demand and supply are always two major factors to lead the market value. Unfortunately it is not an easy job to identify the future demand in advance. This research was intended to find out the relationship between the global GDP and semiconductor growth rate. Beside the furthering study on the Moole’s law and MtM would be introduced to reflect the real situation in the semiconductor industry. Some single event really impacted the global economic situation. Whether the semiconductor industry has been suffered by these economic issues? For example the Gulf war in 1990, the financial turmoil of Asia in 1997~1998, the burst of internet bubbles in 2001, the 2nd energy crisis in 2007~2008, the subprime mortgage in 2008. The top two IC foundry, TSMC and UMC, in the world wide are located in Taiwan so that the competition on the technology , capacity expansion, and revenue in the past ten year would be introduced and studied. It is anticipated to find out some conclusions and footprints for the future healthy capacity expansion by this study.