台灣高速鐵路系統對地方發展之影響分析

Abstract

台灣高速鐵路系統即將於民國94年開始通車，屆時一日生活圈之目標將可達成。對台灣地區而言，高鐵系統將是繼高速公路之後的交通重大革命。與國外的高鐵系統較不相同的是，國內高鐵系統伴隨著新市鎮的開發，故台灣高鐵系統可分為高鐵本身以及高鐵車站特定區兩部分，而其帶來的影響則可分兩個層級討論，一是區域層級的影響，二是地方層級的影響，本研究主要針對高鐵系統對地方層級的發展會帶來何種影響進行討論。 本研究採模型建構的方式進行高鐵系統影響分析，以聯立方程模型作為模型構建的基礎，使用台灣地區本島323個鄉鎮市之人口、產業以及旅運資料作為模型校估樣本。本研究並設計若干項政策，依照政策實施成效之不同建立18個不同的情境，模擬高鐵系統在不同情境下對地方發展會帶來何種影響。 本研究發現高鐵本身對服務範圍內之人口與產業有正向的影響，相對的對服務範圍外之人口與產業則有負向影響，此外本研究發現高鐵車站特定區的劃設對設站地區之人口與產業會帶來正向影響，且其影響幅度大於對外交通可及性改善對人口與產業帶來的正向影響；高鐵系統對地方發展的影響會隨著配套政策的不同而有所差異，本研究發現改善高鐵車站聯外運輸系統以及促進車站特定區的開發，可以增加享受高鐵系統服務的鄉鎮市數量，並且增加高鐵系統對人口與產業正向影響的幅度。

關鍵字：高速鐵路、地方發展、聯立方程模型。

Taiwan HSR (high speed rail) system will be operated in 2005, travel time between Taipei City and Kaohsiung City will be shortened to only 90 minutes. Different from the HSR of other countries, Taiwan HSR system includes not only high speed rail itself, but also a large number of station area development projects, most of which are located in remote districts. Therefore, the impact of Taiwan HSR system is created from two sources: “high speed rail” and “station area development projects”. Besides, the impact of Taiwan HSR system can be analyzed by two scales: “regional impact” and “local impact” two parts. This work focuses on the local development impact of Taiwan HSR system.

“Simultaneous equation modeling” is applied for the construction of local development model, which is calibrated by the samples of 323 villages, towns or cities in Taiwan. The calibration data includes population, industry, land use and travel demand. After model has been calibrated, 18 scenarios of Taiwan HSR system are created, and the impacts are analyzed and discussed.

The empirical study reaches the following conclusions: First, the HSR itself will positively influence the development of population and industry in the service areas of HSR stations. Second, the station area development projects create more positive influences on the development of population and industry in the station areas than the HSR itself does. Finally, It’s also found that improving the transportation transfer systems of the HSR stations enhances the positive influences of HSR systems on local development of population and industry.

Key words: High speed rail, Local development, Simultaneous equation modeling