台灣通訊用三五族產業國產設備發展需求預測

Abstract

正如同PC產業扶植了台灣的矽產業，成功發展出一完整的產業供應鏈，隨著無線通訊市場的興起，也為台灣另創一個完整的三五族產業供應鏈。由於國內矽產業的成功發展模式，帶動了三五族產業的起而效尤，加上近年來人才輩出，且三五族產業結構與矽產業近似，從上游磊晶元件、積體電路的設計、中游晶圓代工、到下游封裝測試都已儼然成型。唯三五族半導體工業尚屬新興產業，尚未如同矽產業一般已有標準進程要遵循，包括產業設備都仍未有標準規格依循。三五族半導體設備因生產規模較小，國內機械產業切入此市場，相對較矽半導體製程機械為容易。因而對台灣三五族產業設備來說，在此新興設備領域有一成功的機會。因此本研究在內外在環境不變，且產業於2010年成熟的假設下，以台灣通訊用三五族半導體產業的國產設備為預測對象並進行分類。資料收集範圍以參與「三五族半導體產業研發聯盟」的成員為主，進行專家訪談，利用問卷進行深度資料收集，以成長曲線法找出台灣三五族半導體產業各類國產設備的發展軌跡。並輔以設備需求程度與成長率的分析，供設備與製程業者擬定發展策略時的參考。結果發現17項設備類型中有4項無法利用成長曲線進行分析，其餘各類型機台的成長曲線大都在2010年左右達到其上限值。最後並提出哪幾項設備類型值得開發。

Just like PC industry developed Silicon industry in Taiwan and successfully created a complete industry supply chain, Ⅲ/Ⅴ Industry also create similar model in Taiwan with the raise of wireless communication market. In its mode of development and industrial structure, Ⅲ/Ⅴ Industry resembles Taiwan’s silicon industry just over a decade ago. But this industry is an emerging industry, there are not the standard of equipments need to be followed. For this reason, we can believe there are successful chances for equipments of Ⅲ/Ⅴ Industry in Taiwan. Under the assumptions of constant internal-external environments and ripe industry in 2010, the forecasting target of this thesis is the local equipment for Ⅲ/Ⅴ industry of communication in Taiwan. The scope of data gathering is limited to the members in “The R&D Alliance for Ⅲ/Ⅴ industry”. This thesis collects relative literatures and information, and interview experts to form the questionnaire. After that, we use growth curves to show the trails of local equipments of Ⅲ/Ⅴ Industry and analyze their growth and demand. The results show that there are 4 of 17 types can’t be analyzed by growth curves. The amount of others will achieve the upper limit about 2010. In the end, we suggest which types are worth researching and developing.