藥妝連鎖店彩妝保養品類自有品牌需求預測與分析

Abstract

零售商利用通路本身的知名度與通路商之優勢，透過創新發展自有品牌與競爭對手創造差異化及順應市場變化，零售商發展自有品牌已成趨勢。因為曝光度低及消費者對自有品牌品質的疑慮等因素造成客戶需求不確定性高，本研究對象為一家藥妝連鎖店一個彩妝保養品自有品牌，目的在探討藥妝連鎖店彩妝保養品自有品牌的顧客需求，以過去十八個月實際銷售數據為目標而促銷折扣數、有無刊登週DM、有無刊登月DM、促銷活動天數、門市店家所在區域、是否為業績前25名店家為變數進行探討分析，之後由一個物流配送中心配送販售的自有品牌商品至四百三十個零售門市販售。論文中運用移動平均法、指數平滑法及分類迴歸樹三種研究方法來預估客戶對彩妝保養品自有品牌的需求，找出一套比現行個案公司所運用的方法更有效率且更能快速回應市場需求，同時也更能節省個案公司之總營運成本增加競爭力，避免企業庫存過高、資金過渡積壓於存貨或甚至存貨變成慢流貨(slow moving stock)，同時也增加客戶滿意度。研究結果可供個案公司未來安排促銷配貨決策時參考。

Developping its own brand has become a trend, retails with well known and good reputation to create differentiation between competitors and to quick reponse the changes in the market by innovation and development of its own brand. Because the exposure is low and consumer doubts the product quality of own brand, customer demand uncertainty has raised. Employing a leading cosmeceutical chain store one stock keeping unit (SKU) enighteen months actual sales account data, which jointly the type of promotions, the price reduction, the duration of promtoin event, stores location, weekly flyer exposure and monthly flyer exposure. In this paper there methods which are moving average methods, the exponential smoothing eechnique and classification and regression tree (CART) have been developed for demand forcasing. This study aims to reduce customer demand uncertainty and aslo to provide better forecast in order to save total operating costs and to increase its competitiveness, as well as increase customer satisfaction.The results confirm the and may also assist managers to make better decisions.