風險值於實獲值管理應用－工期風險值模型實證、改善

Abstract

摘要

在各個專案生命週期中，各階段皆存在各種不確定性及風險因子，進而造成各分項作業完成工期及總工期之負面影響，而風險值用於實獲值管理的觀念也趨近成熟，本研究主旨將以拔靴法、Delta-Normal法建立之工期風險值模型(改善)以及實獲時程管理的方法，再結合目前實務上用來評估損失風險的理論概念和模型，以時程變動率綜合工期風險值(SAR)與實獲值方法(EVM)預測工期風險值並針對實際案例－龍井太陽能光電廠的實際工期差異與實際剩餘完工工期，做相關差異之比較分析、驗證與討論。

Abstract In the entire life cycle of the project, there are many uncertainties and risks, which bring the negative impacts to each individual work and entire project in the schedule. The concept of Value At Risk(VAR) in Earned Value Management(EVM)becomes mature. Thus,in this study,we improve the model of Schedule at Risk(SAR) by bootstrap,Delta Normal method and Earned Schedule(ES).Besides, the proposed method combines the concept, theory and model which is used to assess the loss of the VAR in practice.We will use the volatility of schedule ,SAR and EVM to predict the value at risk of the schedule and do the relevant differences comparative analysis, verification, discussion and improvement in the case: Longjing solar power plant.