2030年數位生活情境分析-數位家庭應用之研究

Abstract

本研究旨在觀察舊經濟時代到新經濟時代產品與服務演變的過程，及社會家庭結構的變化與發展，運用情境分析法來預測描述2030年數位生活可能的情境，進一步藉著未來可能發生的趨勢來為現在數位家庭生活相關產業的廠商提供對未來策略應有的方向建議。本研究從數位生活的角度尋找關於數位家庭生活產品或服務發展的重要不確定性因素及其對相關產業可能的影響，並輔以建構數位生活未來發展的可能情境。 本研究認為，影響數位生活產業發展的重要不確定性因素包括：1.擴散普及程度；2.跨領域整合程度；3.產品/技術的可獲得性。並依各個不確定軸的樂觀、悲觀情境，分別建立了夢想的數位幻境、數位戰國群雄風雲、貴族與平民的數位落差、距今不遠的數位生活四種未來可能的數位生活情境。 最後，本研究針對消費性電子產品的演變過程來推估數位家庭生活產品形成要素，並輔以數位家庭聯盟平台產業發展現況來觀察廠商的佈局與策略，進一步配合本研究所預測的未來數位生活情境，來給予相關產業廠商未來策略的建議。

關鍵字：新經濟、數位生活、數位家庭聯盟資訊平台、情境分析法 析法

This research aims at the evolutionary process from past economy era to New Economy and observing the transformation of social family structure for offering the reference for strategy making by using scenario analysis, focus on the digital life in 2030. Hence it tries to find out the key uncertainty factors and the influences from digital life products and services by considering this and to build up the possible scenarios for future digital life. In this study, the key uncertainty factors could be concluded into the followings: 1.the penetration dimension; 2. interdisciplinary integration; 3. access of products and technology and then setting up four scenarios by each optimistic and pessimistic aspect as “dream digital life”, “digital competitions”, “digital gap from two worlds” and “normal digital life”. Finally, this study would conjecture the fundaments of digital life products by the developing process of consumer electronic products and observe the strategy mapping of digital life products alliance for offering the future suggestion within the scenarios predicted by this study.

Keywords: new economy, digital life, digital family alliance platform, scenario analysis method